'09 Preview -- Washington Nationals

2008 Record: 59-102, 5th NL East
2009 Prediction: 5th NL East

Impact Player: Ryan Zimmerman
Impact Pitcher: John Lannan
Top Prospect: Jordan Zimmerman, RHP

Significant Acquisitions: OF/1B Adam Dunn, OF Josh Willingham, P Scott Olsen, P Daniel Cabrera, C Javier Valentin, INF Alex Cintron
Significant Losses: INF Aaron Boone, OF Willie Harris, INF Emilio Bonifacio, P Tim Redding


The Washington Nationals were the worst team in baseball in 2008.  In fact, since their move from Montreal in 2005 their best record was in that year when they went 81-81.  The Nationals made a big push for Mark Teixeira in the off-season and just lost out to the Yankees in the end and they eventually signed maybe the most prolific slugger in the majors in Adam Dunn.  The Nats also pulled off a deal to acquire troubled lefty Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham from division-rival Florida.  On paper, the Nats look better, but in reality players like Scott Olsen and another off-season acquisition Daniel Cabrera are not exactly character guys and have yet to fulfill the promise they once showed.  I just don't see how the Nats are going to be much better this year; their young players still need to get better.

Pitching
The Nationals were 14th in the NL in ERA last year and ranked no higher than 12th in any pitching category.  To allieviate that the Nats acquired Olsen and Cabrera to try and boost their rotation which is without a true #1...or #2 for that matter.  The two underachievers were a combined 16-21 in '08 with a 4.69 combined ERA.  Joining them are two lefties in John Lannan and veteran Odalis Perez.  Lannan showed promise and could be the opening day starter after posting a 3.91 ERA in spite of 15 losses and Perez struggled going 7-12.  The fifth spot is a wide-open competition between veteran Shawn Hill and three prospects: Jordan Zimmerman, Collin Balester and Shairon Martis.  Zimmerman may have the inside track after going 10-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 134 innings split between A+ and AA last year.  Both Balester and Martis played breifly with the big club in '08 and Hill battled injuries the whole year.  If Hill can regain the form that saw him post a 3.42 ERA in 16 starts in '07, he could get another shot.

The bullpen was atrocious last year and only the Braves had less saves.  The best closing option in Jon Rauch was traded near the deadline last year to acquire Emilio Bonifacio who was then traded in the Olsen/Willingham deal.  As many as four pitchers could vie for the job in spring training.  Joel Hanrahan probably has the best shot, but young Steven Shell posted a 2.16 ERA in 50 innings last year and has closer-type stuff and so does Garret Mock.  Veteran setup-man Saul Rivera might end up closing if none of these pitchers can close effectively.  Joining those four in the 'pen will be any three of a number of pitchers: Lefties Matt Chico, Michael O'Connor, and Mike Hinckley and righties Jason Bergmann, Tyler Clippard, and Marco Estrada.

Rotation (Handedness/Age on June 30, 2009)

• John Lannan (L/24)
• Scott Olsen (L/25)
• Odalis Perez (L/32)
• Daniel Cabrera (R/28)
• Jordan Zimmerman (R/23) 

Bullpen

• Joel Hanrahan (R/27)
• Saul Rivera (R/31)
• Steven Shell (R/26)
• Garret Mock (R/26)
• Matt Chico (L/26)
• Jason Bergmann (R/28)
• Mike Hinckley (L/26)

Lineup
The Nationals hitting, like their pitching, was awful in '08.  They finished no higher than 11th in any category and were dead last in the NL in slugging percentage and second-last in home runs.  There should be more slugging this year with the addition of two players, Dunn and Willingham, who should take more than their fair share of baseballs over the wall.  In the outfield will be Willingham in Left, attitude problem Lastings Milledge in Center, and once-highly-touted Elijah Dukes in Right.  If Milledge or Dukes can't keep it together, the Nats also have Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns in the mix and Dunn can play the outfield as well.  Dunn, however, will likely play First and anchor an infield that includes future franchise-player Ryan Zimmerman (no relation to Jordan) at Third.  Veterans Christian Guzman and Ronnie Belliard could play up the middle, but Anderson Hernandez is expected to be given every opportunity to start at second over Belliard.  24-year-old Jesus Flores may be ready to take the on the starting catching job, but if he struggles veteran Wil Nieves is around, as is minor-league invitee Javier Valentin.

On the bench will be Kearns, Pena, Belliard and either Nieves or Valentin if they don't start.  This gives the Nats some depth and also some trade bait for more young players.  Joining them will be Nick Johnson who has spent the last few years battling injuries and may be close to the end of his career because of them.  A minor-league contract was also given to veteran utility-infielder Alex Cintron and Dmitri Young is still kicking around as well but is a long-shot to make the team.

Lineup (Handedness/Age on June 30, 2009)

• CF  Lastings Milledge (R/24)
• SS  Christian Guzman (S/31)
• 3B  Ryan Zimmerman (R/24)
• 1B  Adam Dunn (L/29)
• LF  Josh Willingham (R/30)
• RF  Elijah Dukes (R/25)
• C    Jesus Flores (R/24)
• 2B  Anderson Hernandez (S/26)

Bench

• OF Wily Mo Pena (R/27)
  
• OF Austin Kearns (R/29)
• INF Ronnie Belliard (R/34)
• 1B  Nick Johnson (L/30)
• INF Alex Cintron (S/30)
• C    Javier Valentin (S/33)

Outlook
The Nats have still got a long way to go and I don't believe that the addition of Dunn and Willingham will be enough to bring this offense out from near the bottom of the NL, nor do I believe Olsen and Cabrera will be enough to have a good rotation.  The Nationals young players are still a year or two away from being true major leaguers and until that happens this team will be terrible.  Final Prediction: 55-107, 5th NL East