2010 Cleveland Indians Preview

2009 Record: 65-97, 5^th AL Central

2009 Prediction: 70-92, 5^th AL Central

2010 Prediction: 5^th AL Central

 

Impact Player: Grady Sizemore

Impact Pitcher: Kerry Wood

Top Prospect Player: C Carlos Santana

Top Prospect Pitcher: LHP Nick Hagadone

 

Manager: Manny Acta, 1^st Season (158-252, .385 [WAS, 07-09])

 

Significant Acquisitions: C Mike Redmond, INF Mark Grudzielanek, 3B Brian Buscher, OF Austin Kearns, RHP Jason Grilli, RHP Saul Rivera

Significant Losses: C Kelly Shoppach, INF Jamey Carroll, RHP Tomo Ohka

 

Besides the worst logo in all of baseball (seriously guys, change it; times have changed, so should you), the Indians also had one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball in 2009.  They finished 13^th in the AL in ERA and were completely lost after they dealt Cliff Lee to Philadelphia in July.  The Indians have traded away a practical All-Star team the past few years saying goodbye to C.C. Sabathia, Lee, Victor Martinez, and Kelly Shoppach and the front office, led by GM Mark Shapiro has sat threw the most harrowing free fall in the majors since being a win away from the World Series in 2007.  Shapiro has orchestrated some of the best trades in baseball in the past (see Bartolo Colon to Montreal) but seems to have lost his touch the past few years.  Ownership is standing behind him, but one has to wonder for how long.  Shapiro canned his entire coaching staff after last year's disaster season, but was Eric Wedge and company really the problem?  The Indians had no depth on their pitching staff and a lineup that lacked teeth outside of Grady Sizemore.  Things aren't any better this year either; expect another long season, Cleveland.

 

Pitching

You know it's bad when your "number 1" pitcher is a guy who has only 30 starts since 2006 and has only one time in his career had an ERA under 4.  Nonetheless, Jake Westbrook takes the reigns as the number one starter by default.  He's apparently healthy but who knows if he'll ever be 100% again.  After Westbrook is Fausto Carmona who was brilliant in 2007 posting 19 wins but has been an enigma since, going 13-19 with a 5.89 ERA in the past two years.  His 2009 was atrocious with only 5 wins and a 6.32 ERA.  Carmona's work ethic and attitude have been questioned and he is probably never going to be the pitcher he was in 2007.  If he continues pitching this way for much longer, he'll be out of the rotation.  A swath of pitchers will attempt to fill spots three through five with Justin Masterson (acquired in the Victor Martinez trade), David Huff (who won 11 games in his rookie season but posted a 5.61 ERA), Aaron Laffey, Anthony Reyes, Carlos Carrasco (who was acquired in the Lee deal), Mitch Talbot (who was acquired for Kelly Shoppach), and Rule 5 draft pick Hector Ambriz being the top contenders.  Top prospect Nick Hagadone who was also acquired in the Martinez trade from the Red Sox could also see major league time at some point in 2010.

 

The best pitcher on the staff is Kerry Wood who will close again this season.  He struggled in his first season with the Tribe posting a 4.25 ERA and only 20 saves, but there's no denying his stuff.  He's in the last year of his contract so he'll likely be traded if/when the Indians fall out of contention.  The rest of the bullpen will be filled by righties Chris Perez (who can close if Wood is dealt), Jensen Lewis (who was much better in '08 than in '09), Jason Grilli (a veteran who was signed in the offseason and can pitch anywhere in the 'pen including long relief), and Joe Smith (who can be an elite setup man if he's healthy).  Lefthanders Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp round out the 'pen.  The former had an awful year and will look to rebound, while the latter was terrific posting a 2.92 ERA in '09 as a rookie.  Talbot and Jeremy Sowers will get a look as long men as both are out of options and must clear waivers if they are sent to the minors.  All-in-all, the bullpen could end up being a strength if Lewis and Rafael Perez regain their form and Smith is healthy.

 

ROTATION	Age	B/T
Jake Westbrook	32	R/R
Fausto Carmona	26	R/R
Justin Masterson	25	R/R
David Huff	24/5	L/L
Aaron Laffey	25	L/L
BULLPEN
Kerry Wood	32/3	R/R
Joe Smith	26	R/R
Chris Perez	24/5	R/R
Rafael Perez	28	L/L
Tony Sipp	26/7	L/L
Jensen Lewis	25/6	R/R
Jason Grilli*	33	R/R
POSSIBILITIES
Carlos Carrasco	23	R/R
Anthony Reyes	28	R/R
Saul Rivera*	32	S/R
Mitch Talbot*	26	R/R
Jess Todd	23/4	R/R
Hector Ambriz*	25/6	L/R
Jeremy Sowers	26/7	L/L

*=newly acquired

 

Lineup

The Indians finished 8^th in runs scored in the AL last year and 7^th in batting average, so it could have been worse.  If starting centerfielder and perennial All-Star Grady Sizemore is healthy (which he wasn't last year) that might improve this season.  Sizemore hit just .248 last year with only 18 homeruns.  Those numbers should improve significantly if he's healthy.  He's still one of the best pure athletes in baseball.  Shin-Soo Choo is back in rightfield and is becoming a very solid major-leaguer.  Last season Choo became the first Asian-born player to have a 20/20 season with 20 HR and 21 stolen bases.  He also hit .300 with a .883 OPS.  Not to mention that he is one of the best defensive rightfielders in the AL posting a 9.1 RTot rating last season.  Leftfield will likely go to rookie Michael Brantley, son of former major leaguer and former Jays hitting coach Mickey Brantley.  Brantley hit .313 in a short stint last season and might be the best pure hitter in the organization among prospects.  He won't hit for much power, but with his contact ability and blazing speed, he could leadoff which would allow the Tribe to put Sizemore down to third in the lineup and take fuller advantage of his power.  If Brantley can't stick, Trevor Crowe could get a look and the team also signed Austin Kearns to a minor-league deal.

 

The infield is led by Asdrubal Cabrera who is becoming a very good player.  His RTot rating was not great last season, but scouts say he has the raw ability of a Gold Glover and he came around at the plate last season hitting .308 with an impressive .799 OPS and 68 RBI.  He's still only 24.  Cabrera's emergence at short means that Jhonny Peralta will be the everyday third baseman.  He's better suited defensively there than at short and the Indians are hoping he starts hitting like his old self with less to worry about on the defensive side of the ball.  The Indians are probably trying to trade him though.  Luis Valbuena will be given the job at second but will be pushed by offseason acquisitions Mark Grudzielanek, Brian Bixler and Luis Rodriguez.  At first base, young slugger Matt LaPorta will be given every opportunity to win the job and show Indians fans that they got something back in the Sabathia trade.  The catcher to start the year will be 23-year-old Lou Marson who was acquired in the Lee deal.  He has promise, but is likely only holding a spot for the organization's top prospect Carlos Santana who might be ready by mid-season.  Marson may not be an Indian for long.  The DH will be Travis Hafner providing he doesn't get bought out before the season starts.  Hafner has been a disaster the past few years and although he blames injuries, one has to question his sudden drop in weight and production in spite of the fact that he is still only 32.  Is anyone else curious?

 

Veteran Mike Redmond will likely start the year as the backup catcher but he'll turn 39 during the season.  Wyatt Toregas and Chris Gimenez (who can also play first and rightfield) are insurance policies.  Either Crowe or Kearns will be the fourth outfielder and Grudzielanek will most likely be joined by utility-infielder Andy Marte who just can't seem to get it right at the major-league level.  He has become the penultimate 4-A player.  Brian Buscher was acquired from the Twins and may get a look at first base if LaPorta struggles.

 

Pos.		Age	B/T
LF	Michael Brantley	22/3	L/L
SS	Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)	24	S/R
CF	Grady Sizemore	27/8	L/L
3B	Jhonny Peralta (SS)	27/8	R/R
RF	Shin-Soo Choo	27/8	L/L
DH	Travis Hafner	32/3	L/R
1B	Matt LaPorta (RF)	25	R/R
2B	Luis Valbuena	24	L/R
C	Lou Marson	23/4	R/R
	BENCH
INF	Andy Marte (1B, 3B, SS, 2B)	26	R/R
OF	Trevor Crowe (LF, CF, RF)	26	S/R
C	Mike Redmond*	38/9	R/R
INF	Mark Grudzielanek* (2B, SS)	39/0	R/R
	POSSIBILITIES
1B	Chris Gimenez (C, RF)	27	R/R
INF	Brian Bixler* (2B, SS)	27	R/R
C	Wyatt Toregas	27	R/R
LF	Jordan Brown (LF)	26	L/L
3B	Brian Buscher* (1B)	29	L/R
INF	Luis Rodriguez* (2B, SS)	29/0	S/R
OF	Austin Kearns* (RF, LF)	29/0	R/R
OF	Shelley Duncan* (RF, LF, 1B)	30	R/R

*=newly acquired

 

The Indians didn't do much this offseason so don't expect miracles.  Their rotation is awful, their bullpen and lineup are average at best and their young players have yet to hit their ceiling.  Mark Shapiro could be on the hot seat if a run at .500 isn't made, but it's going to be hard to do that with the likes of Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona at the top of your rotation.  Indians fans should look to 2011 and beyond.

Final Prediction: 66-96, 5^th AL Central