2010 Detroit Tigers Preview

2009 Record: 86-77, 2^nd AL Central

2009 Prediction: 91-71, 1^st AL Central

2010 Prediction: 3^rd AL Central

 

Impact Player: Miguel Cabrera

Impact Pitcher: Justin Verlander

Top Prospect Player: OF Austin Jackson

Top Prospect Pitcher: RHP Jacob Turner

 

Manager: Jim Leyland, 5^th Season (343-306, .528)

 

Significant Acquisitions: OF Austin Jackson, C Robinzon Diaz, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Jose Valverde, LHP Phil Coke

Significant Losses: 2B Placido Polanco, OF Curtis Granderson, OF Marcus Thames, 1B/DH Aubrey Huff, RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Fernando Rodney, LHP Jarrod Washburn, RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Freddy Dolsi

 

The Tigers were well on their way to proving me right last season until a Mets-esque collapse ruined everything.  Those pesky, over-achieving Twins were able to fight their way back from a huge deficit and force a one game playoff for the division for a second straight year.  In '08 the Twins lost to the White Sox, but in '09 they beat the Tigers in one of the best games I've ever had the privilege to watch.  To make things worse, Tigers ownership, feeling the pinch of the economic crisis that is much worse in Detroit than anywhere else (We Windsorites feel your pain) is cutting back on payroll.  This led to the trading of the popular Curtis Granderson to the hated Yankees and a relatively inactive hot stove season.  Ownership also realized that you don't need to spend with the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox to win in this division.  Can the acquisition of some fine young talent in return for Granderson and Edwin Jackson along with the signing of a tested closer bring the Tigers back to the playoffs?  In the AL Central, anything's possible.

 

Pitching

The Tigers have one of the few truly elite number one pitchers in the game in Verlander who was just signed to a 5 year extension which shows that ownership hasn't turned into the Marlins.  After a less-than-impressive 2008 season that saw him lose 17 games, Verlander returned to form in '09 notching a league high 19 wins and a 3.45 ERA.  He also led the AL in innings pitched (240.0) and strikeouts (269).  He became just the third pitcher this century to throw that many innings with at least one strikeout per inning.  Randy Johnson did it four times and Curt Schilling did it twice.  The Tigers do have some depth after Verlander with rising stars Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer who was acquired from the Diamondbacks in that massive 3-team trade.  Porcello was third in Rookie of the Year voting after posting a 14-9 record and a 3.96 ERA while Scherzer was only 9-11 in Arizona but had 174 strikeouts in only 170.1 innings pitched and rivals Verlander in terms of pure stuff.  The final two spots are up for grabs between overpaid, oft-injured vets Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman although they are only 28 and 27 respectively.  Disgruntled lefty Nate Robertson, Tommy John recoveree Armando Galarraga and long-relief specialist Zach Miner are also in the mix.

 

After the departure of Fernando Rodney, the Tigers were in the market for a closer and were able to sign an elite one in Jose Valverde.  Valverde led the NL in both '07 and '08 in saves and posted 25 last year for an awful Houston team.  Baseball's hardest thrower Joel Zumaya is back in setup and the Tigers are hoping this is the year he develops a complimentary pitch that hitters can't sit on.  Lefthanders Bobby Seay and Fu-Te Ni are back and expected to be in the bullpen along with fellow southpaw Phil Coke who may end up starting with the wealth of lefties already in the 'pen.  Ni was the most impressive of that group in '09 with a 2.61 ERA in 31.0 innings.  Ryan Perry is in the mix as well, but the Tigers will eventually want him starting, just not this year.  The long-relief job will go to one of the pitchers not in the rotation.

 

ROTATION	Age	B/T
Justin Verlander	27	R/R
Rick Porcello	21	R/R
Max Scherzer*	25/6	R/R
Jeremy Bonderman	27	R/R
Phil Coke*	27/8	L/L
BULLPEN
Jose Valverde*	30/1	R/R
Joel Zumaya	25	R/R
Bobby Seay	31/2	L/L
Fu-Te Ni	27	L/L
Ryan Perry	23	R/R
Zach Miner	28	R/R
Armando Galarraga	28	R/R
POSSIBILITIES
Nate Robertson	32/3	R/L
Eddie Bonine	28/9	R/R
Dontrelle Willis	28	L/L
Daniel Schlereth*	23/4	L/L
Casey Fien	26	R/R
Alfredo Figaro	25/6	R/R
Brad Thomas*	32	L/L
Enrique Gonzalez*	27/8	R/R
Phil Dumatrait*	28/9	R/L
Ruddy Lugo	29/0	R/R

*=newly acquired

 

Lineup

With the trading of the popular Granderson to New York, there's a big hole in centerfield and at the top of the lineup.  The Tigers are hoping that one of the pieces they received in return for that deal can fill the void in both spots.  Austin Jackson was acquired from the Yankees where he was considered their top prospect and centerfielder of the future.  He'll play center for the Tigers.  Last year in AAA he hit .300 with 4 HR and 65 RBI as well as 24 stolen bases.  It is believed that he'll eventually hit for similar power as Granderson and in many ways is considered very similar to the ex-Tiger.  Magglio Ordonez is back in rightfield but may find himself DHing more often this year.  He's still a .300 hitter but his power is down a lot; he hit only 9 HR last season.  Leftfield will be played by Ryan Raburn or, when he's not DHing, Carlos Guillen.  Guillen is serviceable but not at all what he used to be.  If the Tigers can move him at some point during the year, they may do so.  Raburn can play almost anywhere and had a breakout year in '09 hitting .291 with 16 HR and a .892 OPS.

 

The infield is anchored by Miguel Cabrera at first who admitted to struggling with alcohol in the offseason.  With all of his troubles, Cabrera still hit .324 with 34 HR and 103 RBI in '09.  Imagine what he could do with less off-field trouble.  Pujolsian numbers are within his reach and people forget that he's still only 27.  He was almost traded in the offseason but the Tigers appear content to keep him if he bounces back after rehab.  Placido Polanco signed with the Phillies in the offseason so his steady bat and terrific glove are gone.  The Tigers are taking a massive leap of faith by handing the job to rookie Scott Sizemore (no relation to Grady).  Sizemore was terrific between AA and AAA last year, but is still very much unproven.  If he struggles, Ramon Santiago could step in.  Defensive wizard Adam Everett is back to play short but won't provide much of anything with the bat.  If Sizemore works out at second, Santiago is more than capable of spelling Everett when more offense is needed.  Third base will be manned by franchise stalwart Brandon Inge who has become an elite defensive third-bagger.  He was an All-Star last season and cranked 27 homeruns.  His .230 average and .314 OBP have to be better, however.  The catching job belongs to Gerald Laird for now, but he's ultimately better suited as a backup.  Prospect Alex Avila may get a look before the end of the season, but will likely start in AAA.  He is the future of catching for the Tigers.

 

On the bench, the Tigers are thin outside of infielder Santiago.  Clete Thomas will likely be the fourth outfielder and journeyman minor-league utility-man Don Kelly could also get a spot.  Robinzon Diaz, who was acquired from the Pirates, will likely start the year as the backup catcher.

 

Pos.		Age	B/T
CF	Austin Jackson*	23	R/R
RF	Magglio Ordonez (DH)	36	R/R
1B	Miguel Cabrera	27	R/R
DH	Carlos Guillen (1B, LF)	34	S/R
LF	Ryan Raburn (RF, CF, 1B, 3B)	29	R/R
3B	Brandon Inge	32/3	R/R
2B	Scott Sizemore	25	R/R
C	Gerald Laird	30	R/R
SS	Adam Everett	33	R/R
	BENCH
INF	Ramon Santiago (SS, 2B, 3B)	30/1	S/R
OF	Clete Thomas (CF, LF, RF)	26	L/R
C	Robinzon Diaz*	26	R/R
UTIL	Don Kelly (CF, RF, 3B, 1B)	30	L/R
	POSSIBILITIES
INF	Jeff Larish (1B, 3B)	27	L/R
INF	Brent Dlugach (SS, 2B)	27	R/R
OF	Wilken Ramirez (LF, RF)	24	R/R
C	Alex Avila	23	L/R
C	Mike Rabelo*	30	S/R

 

I find it hard to believe that both Porcello and Scherzer will be capable of being 2 and 3 starters on a contending team; not this year, at least.  And a team with an aging Carlos Guillen as the cleanup hitter has more troubles on offense than it would appear.  If Cabrera deals well with his off-field troubles and Verlander and Porcello carry the load of the staff, the Tigers might compete for the AL Central...might.  However, the White Sox have a much deeper pitching staff and the Twins have Mauer and Morneau.

Final Prediction: 79-83, 3^rd AL Central